Breaking: Cyber Attack on US Federal, South Korean Sites (UPDATED)

Via the AP comes this sobering story about an unusually sophisticated and tenacious DDoS attack on several notable web sites:

The Treasury Department, Secret Service, Federal Trade Commission and Transportation Department Web sites were all down at varying points over the holiday weekend and into this week, according to officials inside and outside the government. Some of the sites were still experiencing problems Tuesday evening. Cyber attacks on South Korea government and private sites also may be linked, officials there said.

This is a very worrisome business, and both the timing and the targets lend themselves to some very uncomfortable speculations as to possible sources of the attack. For all the brayings out of Pyongyang about 'fireworks' for the Fourth of July, the North Koreans "only" popped off a few mid-range missiles. Is is possible that the main thrust of their attack was not chemical/kinetic at all? If so, then it was a clever if foolhardy feint on Kim's part. Clever, in that the US deployed missile tracking hardware to the region, poised to interdict anything which threatened Hawaii or any other interests of the US or its allies, and thus would have been successfully misdirected. Foolhardy in that a traceable attack on US Government computer systems would be difficult for even the Obama Administration to treat as anything but a blatant act of war.

This is only speculation at this point, and should be taken with a shaker of salt. The bar should be set very high for making any accusations, since the consequences could not fail to be dire.

UPDATE: Here is a follow-up on the investigation into these incidents. It highlights the difficulties in tracing the ultimate origins of the attacks (not to mention who gave the go-ahead and signed the checks). I'm thinking plausible deniability, here. If the provenance of the plot can be credibly held to be uncertain, then the range of responses remains rather broader than it would be if a clearly demonstrable hostile act, with Li'l Kim as its author, could be unambiguously established.

As much as I would love to see that demented homunculus on the receiving end of a JDAM, I also recognize that a hot war in the region would be Very Bad News. Almost as bad as having such a blatant act of aggression go publicly unanswered.

For those with eyes to see, though, the intentions and capabilities of the Putz from Pyongyang have become rather more clear. If (big "if") this should result in firmer ties with South Korea, and perhaps a less laissez-faire stance from Beijing, then it would be worth it to keep this on a cooler, more covert tip.

If nothing else, I hope it spurs more aggressive attention to cyber-war countermeasures!

Axis and Ye Shall Receive

Scary stuff about what was once quaintly referred to as the "Axis of Evil," via Bret Stephens at the WSJ Opinion Page:

Another noteworthy detail: According to a 2003 report in the L.A. Times, "So many North Koreans are working on nuclear and missile projects in Iran that a resort on the Caspian coast is set aside for their exclusive use."

Now the North seems to be gearing up for yet another test of its long-range Taepodong missile, and it's a safe bet Iranians will again be on the receiving end of the flight data. Nothing prevents them from sharing nuclear-weapons material or data, either, and the thought occurs that the North's second bomb test last week might also have been Iran's first. If so, the only thing between Iran and a bomb is a long-range cargo plane.

...

There are still good reasons why Japan would not want to go nuclear: Above all, it doesn't want to simultaneously antagonize China and the U.S. But the U.S. has even better reasons not to want to tempt Japan in that direction. Transparently feckless and time-consuming U.S. diplomacy with North Korea is one such temptation. Refusing to modernize our degraded stockpile of nuclear weapons while seeking radical cuts in the overall arsenal through a deal with Russia is another.

This, however, is the course the Obama administration has set for itself. Allies and enemies alike will draw their own conclusions.

Not that there's anything new about Pyonyang ponying up the plutonium party favors to assorted unsavory customers, mind you. What's noteworthy is the amount of activity along what was supposed, in these newly enlightened times, to be an Ex-Axis. It is understandable, then, that a host of actors will be watching very closely to judge the extent to which the US will act to counterbalance that activity. Will the US wait for the Security Council to obtain permission from Russia and China to issue a strongly-worded letter of concern, or will it take some more direct diplomatic and economic action? And if this fails to prompt the Norks to reconsider their behaviors?

So, now can we call it a Global War on Terror again?

Five-Party Capitulation

[by Mr.Hengist]

The Six-Party Talks October 3^rd, 2007 agreement calls for the sealing of North Korea’s Yongbyon reactor – which has already reached its end-of-life – as well as the “complete and correct declaration of all its nuclear programs, including its nuclear weapons.” Just yesterday, a State Department spokesman said that the U.S. will not accept a faulty declaration from Pyongyang. However, the agreement provides no mechanism for independent verification of its veracity. In exchange for the declaration the U.S. will be “rescinding the designation of the DPRK as a state sponsor of terrorism and the termination of the application of the Trading with the Enemy Act (TWEA) with respect to the DPRK.”

Today, according to press reports, the CIA is to reveal that the military facility destroyed in the September 6^th, 2007 Israeli airstrike was a nuclear reactor modeled on the Yongbyon facility in North Korea. The Norks not only provided technical knowledge but technicians to help the Syrians as well.

The continuation of this farce after the Norks missed the deadline for their declaration five months ago – five months ago! - is nothing less than a capitulation by the Bush Administration and it will haunt us for years to come. When the Norks (predictably) failed to live up to their end of the bargain (and what a bargain for them!) we should have declared this awful agreement dead on arrival and ceased negotiations. Coupled with the continued intransigence of the Iranians who are flaunting their obligations to abide by the Nuclear non-proliferation treaty they signed, what we’ve got is a de facto abandonment of meaningful (i.e., effective) efforts at nuclear non-proliferation.

Democrats, take note: Diplomacy is not pixie dust. Been there, tried that, didn’t work. With North Korea facing yet another acute food shortage in 2008, and few other means of applying leverage short of the application of military force, we have an opportunity to wrest real concessions and compliance. Unfortunately it would mean forcing the thugocracy to contend with another food crisis, and the suffering of the prisoner populace of North Korea has never been too high a price for their aristocracy to pay.